Next Arc Research

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in NBIS.
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NBIS

Analysis

Thesis
Nebius is scaling a purpose-built AI cloud with long-term offtake (MSFT $17.4B), NVIDIA-backed supply, and 300MW+ fast-build data centers—positioned to convert AI compute scarcity into durable contracts and cashflow by 2030.
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Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
5.6x (from 1 most recent analyses)
Reasoning
Anchor MSFT contract (~$3.5B/yr over 5 yrs), ≥1GW power pipeline, NJ 300MW ramp, NVIDIA supply and equity ties. If Nebius hits ~$20B rev with 6–8x EV/S, cap could reach ~$120–160B (5–6x from ~$27B). Upside from more hyperscaler/sovereign JVs.
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