Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in TSM.
TSMC is the compute-capex flywheel: unrivaled advanced-node + CoWoS/SoIC packaging, trusted by NVDA/AAPL/Hyperscalers; by 2030, it can translate 2nm/A16 scale and backend dominance into >$200B revenue despite overseas cost drag.
As-of Sep 2025 cap ≈$1.4T; with AI wafer + packaging share intact, rev can reach ~$210B by 2030. Even with modest multiple, a ~$3.2T cap (≈2–2.5x) is plausible; upside from packaging mix, N2/N2P pricing, and U.S./EU fabs.
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