Next Arc Research

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in ETH.
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ETH

Analysis as of: 2025-10-07
Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF
Low‑fee U.S. spot Ethereum exchange‑traded product sponsored by Grayscale that holds and stakes ETH.
crypto
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Low‑fee Ether ETP aims to win with staking
Cheapest U.S. Ether ETP with live staking can gather flows as crypto becomes core portfolio plumbing. If US ETH ETP TAM hits ~$200B, a 12% share implies ~7× AUM by 2030.

Analysis

Thesis
ETH is the lowest‑fee, staking‑enabled U.S. Ether ETP. In a Last Economy where digital trust rails matter, this product can aggregate RIA/retail flows and compound ETH per share via staking, creating a plausible 5–8x AUM path by 2030.

Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
7.5x (from 2 most recent periods)
Reasoning
Base AUM ~$3.3B (10/07/25). If US ETH ETP TAM scales to ~$200B by 2030 as tokenization/stablecoin rails deepen, and ETH holds ~12% share on lowest fee + staking, AUM ≈$24B. Price + net creations + staked yield imply ~7x. Execution focus: distribution, staking uptime, spreads.

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
Core risks: ETH price beta; distribution disadvantage vs BlackRock/Fidelity; regulatory stance on ETP staking; reliance on Coinbase Custody; commodity competition compressing fees/spreads.