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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in IBIT.
Near-$100B, deep-liquidity gateway to BTC with advisor distribution. If BTC’s cap compounds and share climbs to ~7–8%, AUM can ~6x by 2030.
Analysis
Thesis
Dominant, lowest-friction Bitcoin gateway. If BTC’s market cap scales to ~$8T and IBIT’s share rises from ~4% to ~7–8% via advisor models, options/liquidity and global distribution, IBIT can 5–7x AUM by 2030.
Growth Outlook
Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
6.2x (from 2 most recent periods)
Reasoning
Treating IBIT value ~AUM: Today ~$98B. By 2030, if BTC reaches ~$8T cap and IBIT captures ~7.5% of BTC via advisor/retirement channels and liquidity lead, AUM ≈ $600B—~6.1x uplift.
Risk Assessment
Overall Risk Summary
Key risks: BTC price path, fee wars, custody/AP concentration and policy whiplash. IBIT’s edge is distribution, liquidity and trust; diversification of custodians mitigates single‑point failures.
Trends
Key Changes
Net assets rose to ~$98B (Oct 6), approaching $100B milestone.
Bitcoin printed new ATH near $126k; weekly crypto ETF inflows hit a record.