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Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in META.
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META

Analysis as of: 2025-10-07
Meta Platforms, Inc.
Consumer internet and AI company behind Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger; monetizes attention via ads, builds AI platforms and smart glasses.
advertising ai communications hardware media
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

AI scale turns attention into compute advantage
A dominant attention network is being rebuilt as an AI-native platform with custom silicon, external capacity contracts and a new glasses form factor. If execution holds, ads, messaging and devices can double enterprise value by 2030.

Analysis

Thesis
Owns the largest consumer attention graph and is converting it into an AI-native distribution and hardware platform; with $66–72B 2025 capex securing compute, Meta can double scale by 2030 as ads expand, business messaging matures and AI glasses become a mainstream SKU.

Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.0x (from 1 most recent periods)
Reasoning
Ads TAM grows toward ~$1.5T by 2030 and Meta sustains ~22% share with higher ARPU via AI targeting + commerce; adds $50–60B from business messaging and AI glasses. With operating leverage after the compute buildout, a ~$3.5T cap is feasible from ~$1.8T today.

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
Biggest risks: regulatory actions, AI capex overhang, delayed monetization of agents/glasses, and supplier dependence for advanced GPUs/power. Offsetting strengths: unmatched distribution, first‑party signals, open‑source AI leadership and growing on‑device stack.