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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in ORCL.
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ORCL

Analysis as of: 2025-10-07
Oracle Corporation
Oracle provides enterprise software, cloud infrastructure (OCI), databases, and healthcare IT (Oracle Health/Cerner) to global organizations.
ai cloud enterprise software
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Backlog turns into compute; margins must follow
Booked demand and multicloud distribution put a step‑function revenue ramp within reach by 2030. The debate shifts to AI infra margins and power/logistics execution versus hyperscalers.

Analysis

Thesis
OCI’s AI-first multicloud plus Oracle’s database/ERP footholds and massive booked backlog create a credible path to >$150B cloud run‑rate by 2030, re-rating Oracle as a compute+data platform rather than legacy software.

Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.3x (from 2 most recent periods)
Reasoning
As of Oct 7, 2025 Oracle is ~US$0.81T. FY25 revenue was $57.4B and Q1 FY26 showed $455B RPO and a management outlook for OCI to ~$144B by FY30, with multicloud database distribution and 4.5GW OpenAI capacity commitments. If total revenue approaches ~$190B by 2030 and blended FCF margins scale to high‑teens/low‑20s as AI infra matures, a 2030 equity value of ~$1.8–2.0T (≈2.3x) is plausible without heroic multiples.

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
Oracle must translate record RPO and AI capacity deals into durable, higher‑margin OCI cash flows while competing with hyperscalers and securing power/GPUs. Early AI infra margins are thin; execution on multicloud DB and sovereign cloud is key.