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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in PLTR.
Momentum shifted from pilots to platform: defense wins compress procurement while AIP lands and expands in U.S. commercial. Multiples may compress, but durable, high‑trust distribution can still compound value into 2030.
Analysis
Thesis
If Palantir cements itself as the default, defense‑grade AI runtime for sensitive workflows, AIP can compound into an OS for operations by 2030, expanding from DoD to Fortune 1000 and allies and supporting a step‑function in revenue and durable free cash flow.
Growth Outlook
Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.4x (from 2 most recent periods)
Reasoning
FY25 guide ~$4.15B and Q2 momentum + a 10‑yr Army EA (up to $10B) create visibility. If AIP becomes the secure agent runtime for Gov + F1000, revenue can reach ~$22B by 2030 with strong FCF. Multiple likely compresses, but scale + durability can still 2.2x mcap.
Risk Assessment
Overall Risk Summary
Biggest risks are valuation, hyperscaler/ISV competition, and defense program volatility. Strengths are trust moat, security accreditation, and accelerating U.S. commercial traction with AIP.
Trends
Key Changes
Q2 2025 hit $1.0B revenue (+48% y/y); FY25 guide raised to ~$4.15B.
10‑yr U.S. Army enterprise agreement worth up to $10B signed.
AIP feature cadence (Agent Studio GA; Evals/Model tools) improved dev velocity.
Press on NGC2 security memo; company rebuttal—monitor program risk.
Market cap re-rated into mega‑cap territory; multiples stretched.