Next Arc Research

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in AMZN.
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AMZN

Analysis as of: 2025-10-14
Amazon.com, Inc.
Operates a global e-commerce marketplace, a leading cloud platform (AWS), and a fast-growing retail media and streaming ads business.
advertising ai automation cloud media
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Compute, ads, and delivery form a 2030 flywheel
Scale compute plus daily demand capture supports a higher‑margin mix by 2030. Heavy AI capex compresses FCF near‑term but raises durable moats.

Analysis

Thesis
Compute + logistics + retail media flywheel: by 2030, AWS capacity, agentic shopping, and retail media scale can shift mix to higher-margin streams and 2x enterprise value, even with thin GAAP profits as capex chases compute and power.
Last Economy Alignment
Owns trust + distribution + compute; reinvests cash into GPUs/energy/robots, turning attention and logistics into recurring AI and ad revenue streams.

Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.3x (from 2 most recent periods)
Reasoning
Set 2025 revenue at 706,700 from H1 actuals + Q3 guide + modest Q4 growth. 2030 revenue at 1,152,000 via: Stores/3P/subs CAGR ~7% to 722,000; Ads to 140,000 on retail media/CTV share gains; AWS to 260,000 on AI workloads; +30,000 new SKUs/logistics-as-a-service. Apply EV/Revenue 4.2× in 2030 given richer AWS+ads mix and durable distribution moats. Current EV ≈ 2,309,543; EV_2030 ≈ 4,838,400 → 2.1×.

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
Key risks: AI capex outruns ROI; AWS underperforms faster peers; chip and power constraints delay deployments; policy whiplash (antitrust, tariffs, DMA) shifts margins; ad signal loss/CTV competition tempers retail media growth.