Next Arc Research

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in GOOG.
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GOOG

Analysis as of: 2025-10-14
Alphabet Inc.
Alphabet operates Google Search, YouTube, Android and Google Cloud, monetizing global consumer attention and enterprise compute with ads, subscriptions and AI infrastructure.
advertising ai cloud media software
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Attention plus compute sets up a double
The dominant attention platform is redeploying cash into custom silicon and AI‑first data centers. If AI usage converts to higher‑yield ads, subscriptions and Cloud services, value can roughly double by 2030.

Analysis

Thesis
Owns the richest global attention graph and a full‑stack AI/compute platform (TPUs, data centers, models, products). If Alphabet converts AI usage into higher‑yield ads, paid subscriptions and Cloud AI services while compounding compute scale, a doubling of enterprise value by 2030 is feasible despite capex and regulation.
Last Economy Alignment
Dominant attention + compute flywheel; platforms benefit from AI automation, network capital and data rights, though regulation and capex temper upside.

Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.2x (from 2 most recent periods)
Reasoning
Method=revenue. Assumptions: 2030 TAM 2,600,000; Alphabet revenue 700,000 (ads ~350–380k, Cloud ~160–190k, subs/other ~70k). Apply EV/Revenue 8.5× in 2030 given durable attention, Cloud mix and AI agent monetization. EV_2030 ≈ 5,950,000. Current EV ≈ market cap 2,960,000 + debt 27,600 − cash & securities 95,100 ≈ 2,892,000. Implied ≈ 2.1× by 2030.

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
Main risks: AI search cannibalizes ads before monetization catches up; capex/depreciation depress GAAP; regulatory remedies weaken bundling/data advantages; compute/energy supply constraints slow Cloud/AI growth.