Next Arc Research

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in IBIT.
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IBIT

Analysis as of: 2025-10-14
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF
A U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETF sponsored by BlackRock’s iShares, offering regulated exposure to bitcoin via a grantor trust.
crypto finance
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Flow, trust, and plumbing drive scale
Distribution, in‑kind creations, and custody redundancy give this ETF the best odds to dominate a fast‑growing spot‑bitcoin ETF TAM. Fee pressure trims but doesn’t break the flywheel.

Analysis

Thesis
The most trusted, most‑liquid U.S. spot bitcoin rail with in‑kind creations, options, advisor models, and multi‑custody; if U.S. ETF TAM compounds into retirement channels, IBIT can scale AUM 5–6x by 2030 while defending share with fee/ops excellence.
Last Economy Alignment
Direct beneficiary of digital asset financialization and distribution power; low marginal cost, brand/trust moat; still highly policy/bitcoin‑beta exposed.

Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
6.0x (from 3 most recent periods)
Reasoning
Treat IBIT EV as AUM. Assume US spot‑BTC ETF TAM reaches 1.5T by 2030 with IBIT 35% share → 525B AUM. With 20 bps fee (likely fee defense), revenue ≈ 1,050. Using EV/Rev = 1/fee = 500× implies EV_2030 ≈ 525B. Current EV ≈ 93.9B (AUM). 525/93.9 ≈ 5.6×.

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
The flywheel is flows + liquidity + trust, but outcomes hinge on bitcoin price/regime. Fee wars may trim revenue per dollar of AUM while custody/legal shocks could impair ops. Distribution momentum (models/retirement) is the main offset.