Next Arc Research

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in META.
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META

Analysis as of: 2025-10-14
Meta Platforms, Inc.
Operates Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger; monetizes attention via ads, paid messaging, subscriptions, and Reality Labs hardware.
advertising ai communications hardware software
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Attention moat meets AI capex supercycle
Scale, cash and compute give room to grow beyond ads into messaging commerce and AI wearables. A realistic path to ~2× EV by 2030 exists if execution holds.

Analysis

Thesis
Meta’s unmatched attention graph (3.5B+ daily users) plus a $66–72B 2025 AI capex ramp forms a Last Economy flywheel: higher ad yield, large-scale business messaging and an AI wearables platform. A credible path exists to ~$450B revenue by 2030 and ~2× EV if execution sustains.
Last Economy Alignment
Owns scarce attention, trust loops and data; reinvesting huge cash into compute and AI agents; building on‑person AI hardware. Clear beneficiary of network capital and compute supremacy.

Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.0x (from 2 most recent periods)
Reasoning
H1’25 revenue was 89.8B with Q3 guide to 47.5–50.5B and continued ad yield gains; a 2030 mix of ad volume/price lifts, business messaging scale, subscriptions and AI glasses supports ~$450B revenue. Applying an 8.0× EV/rev (premium for durable attention + AI agent platform) yields ~3.6T EV vs ~1.84T current EV (~2.0×).

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
Regulatory and platform risks plus very high AI capex sit against strong cash engines. The biggest swing factors are: WA business messaging monetization, sustained ad yield from AI, and whether AI glasses achieve durable, mainstream attachment rates.