Next Arc Research

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in ORCL.
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ORCL

Analysis as of: 2025-10-14
Oracle Corporation
Enterprise software leader providing database, ERP SaaS, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure with multicloud distribution and a growing healthcare (Cerner) footprint.
ai cloud enterprise healthcare software
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Backlog-fueled cloud pivot faces capex gauntlet
Exploding contracted backlog and multicloud distribution give a credible line to doubling EV by 2030. The constraint is GPU/power buildout and margin scale, not demand.

Analysis

Thesis
Transforming into an AI compute + data utility: multicloud Database distribution, Cloud@Customer and GPU superclusters give Oracle a credible path to ~200B revenue by 2030, albeit with heavy capex and execution risk.
Last Economy Alignment
Owns distribution to enterprise data and is scaling compute; benefits from AI offloading cognition and from network capital via multicloud/partners.

Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.3x (from 3 most recent periods)
Reasoning
FY2025 revenue 57.4B observed. CFO preview implies OCI reaches ~144B by FY2030; add SaaS/Health and other to reach ~200B revenue. Apply 10.0x EV/Revenue for a scaled, contracted compute+software mix → EV_2030 ≈ 2.0T. Current EV ≈ 0.95T (mkt cap ~0.87T, net debt ~0.08T). 2.0T/0.95T ≈ 2.1×.

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
Oracle is executing a capital‑intensive pivot into AI compute at scale. The flywheel depends on timely GPU/power delivery, multicloud attach, and converting a concentrated backlog into durable, high‑margin cash flows amid hyperscaler competition.