Next Arc Research

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in PLTR.
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PLTR

Analysis as of: 2025-10-14
Palantir Technologies Inc.
Palantir builds AI-enabled data and decision platforms for governments and enterprises (Gotham, Foundry, AIP).
ai defense enterprise software
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Trusted AI OS compounding from defense to industry
With record growth, pivotal UK and Boeing deals, and a capital‑light model, the company can roughly double in value by 2030 if it converts AIP demand into durable, high‑margin platform revenue.

Analysis

Thesis
Palantir is becoming the trusted decision OS for the West—standardizing agentic AI across defense and regulated industry—and can scale revenue non‑linearly via AIP rollouts, sovereign/defense programs, and industrial OS wins while remaining capital‑light.
Last Economy Alignment
Owns distribution and trust where AI is mission‑critical; orchestrates compute without heavy capex; compounds network capital across allied defense and heavily regulated enterprises.

Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.3x (from 3 most recent periods)
Reasoning
Use revenue path. 2025 rev observed 4,150. Assume 2030 TAM 500,000 and 8% share → 40,000 rev. Apply premium but compressed EV/Rev of 22x (vs ~100x today) for a scaled, trusted AI OS leader → EV_2030 ≈ 880,000. Current EV ≈ 414,000 (market cap ~420,400 minus net cash ~6,000). Implies ~2.1x by 2030, consistent with non‑linear account expansion, defense OS standardization, and industrial OS uptake.

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
Key risks are premium valuation versus execution, procurement/budget timing in defense, and hyperscaler or incumbent suites compressing pricing. Trust and mission‑critical deployments mitigate but don’t eliminate these risks.