Next Arc Research

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in AMZN.
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AMZN

Analysis as of: 2025-10-21
Amazon.com, Inc.
Global technology company operating the world’s largest online marketplace, leading public cloud platform (AWS), a top-three digital ads business, and expanding satellite broadband (Project Kuiper).
advertising ai cloud software space
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Compute, retail media, and Prime flywheel compounding
Capex-heavy AI infrastructure and retail media monetization can lift revenue toward $1.2T by 2030. With AWS/ads mix rising, a ~2.1× EV step-up looks feasible.

Analysis

Thesis
By 2030, Amazon’s flywheel of Prime demand, retail media data, and AWS’s AI-first compute scale compounds into a trillion‑plus revenue platform; Kuiper and agentic AI expand distribution while capex funds durable moats.
Last Economy Alignment
Owns distribution, data, and compute; compounding network effects in retail media and AWS with custom silicon and agentic AI platforms.

Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.2x (from 3 most recent periods)
Reasoning
AWS grows with AI infrastructure absorption and higher attach (agents, Bedrock, data services); retail/media scale from Prime, faster logistics, and closed‑loop attribution. We assume sustained reinvestment keeps share gains intact, with 2030 revenue near $1.2T supporting a premium but disciplined EV/revenue multiple.

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
Execution hinges on turning record AI/energy capex into durable AWS capacity, scaling agentic platforms, and keeping retail deflationary amid tariffs and fierce competition while navigating antitrust and supply constraints.