Next Arc Research

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in IBIT.
← Back to Free Index

IBIT

Analysis as of: 2025-10-21
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF
A U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded trust sponsored by BlackRock that holds bitcoin and tracks its spot price with a 0.25% expense ratio.
crypto finance
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Leader in regulated bitcoin access, still compounding
Scale, distribution and cleaner ETF plumbing keep this the prime U.S. BTC rail. Retirement access can extend the lead, but fees and rivals cap the upside to a 2–4x path.

Analysis

Thesis
Dominant, lowest-friction U.S. spot BTC rail with deep distribution, in‑kind creations and dual custody; retirement access and global ETP spillovers can 2–4x IBIT’s AUM by 2030 despite fee pressure and BTC cyclicality.
Last Economy Alignment
Aligned with Digital Asset Financialization and distribution moats; organizes attention/liquidity into a trusted BTC wrapper as crypto integrates with retirement and wealth rails.

Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
5.3x (from 4 most recent periods)
Reasoning
IBIT’s value equals its bitcoin held (NAV). With retirement/wealth channels opening post‑DOL shift and SEC in‑kind ops, U.S. spot‑ETF TAM plausibly scales to ~$1T by 2030. If IBIT defends a ~30% share (vs ~57% today), its AUM roughly triples, implying ~3–4x value since EV ≈ NAV.

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
IBIT is operationally low risk but market/regulatory high beta. Key swings: BTC cycles, rule changes, custody incidents, fee compression, and share shifts as retirement platforms onboard rivals.