Next Arc Research

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in META.
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META

Analysis as of: 2025-10-21
Meta Platforms, Inc.
Operates Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Threads; monetizes global consumer attention via ads, commerce and services while investing heavily in AI and AR wearables.
advertising ai hardware media software
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Ad flywheel funds AI and wearables push
Scale, compute and product velocity make a 2x EV path credible by 2030 as WhatsApp ads/agents and smart glasses add new surfaces beyond the core ad feed.

Analysis

Thesis
Distribution at 3.5B users + best-in-class ad engine funds a compute-and-wearables surge; by 2030 Meta can double revenue with AI agents, WhatsApp monetization and smart glasses becoming a daily surface.
Last Economy Alignment
Owns attention and distribution at global scale, is reinvesting aggressively into compute/models, and is productizing AI in ads, agents, and wearables—core to The Last Economy.

Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.0x (from 3 most recent periods)
Reasoning
From a ~$1.86T equity base, Meta can plausibly 2x EV by 2030 if it converts WhatsApp ads/business messaging into a large revenue leg, lifts ad ARPU via AI agents, and scales smart glasses into a frequent-use surface. Distribution and compute scale sustain pricing power and keep share gains vs. TikTok/YouTube. Valuation likely holds a premium but not extreme given capex intensity and durability.

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
Key risks: regulatory actions, ad cyclicality, and AI capex burden. Upside hinges on WhatsApp monetization scale, AI agent ad formats, and smart glasses adoption sustaining premium multiples despite rising depreciation and energy costs.