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Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in ORCL.
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ORCL

Analysis as of: 2025-10-21
Oracle Corporation
Oracle provides enterprise database and applications software and operates Oracle Cloud Infrastructure for general compute and AI.
ai cloud enterprise healthcare software
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

AI backlog is real; re‑rating curbs upside
Oracle’s AI‑compute backlog and multicloud distribution support a step‑up in revenue by 2030. But after a sharp re‑rating, capital intensity and hyperscaler pressure likely cap gains to a mid‑teens trajectory.

Analysis

Thesis
Backlog-fueled OCI plus Database@Azure distribution can scale Oracle into an AI data+compute utility by 2030, but today’s re‑rating compresses upside; execution shifts to building, powering and monetizing GPU factories with enterprise data moats.
Last Economy Alignment
Owns trusted data/UX and is rapidly converting cash into GPUs, regions, and power; networked distribution with Azure positions it as a beneficiary of compute supremacy and AI agents.

Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.1x (from 4 most recent periods)
Reasoning
Oracle can triple OCI and grow database/applications via multicloud attach and AI agents, but the stock already embeds much of that trajectory. With heavy capex and hyperscaler pricing pressure, a higher 2030 revenue base likely meets a steadier EV/Revenue multiple, yielding mid‑teens annualized value accretion rather than a step‑function re‑rate.

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
Delivery is a logistics and financing marathon: secure GPUs, power and land, stand up regions on time, and convert RPO to high‑margin revenue while defending against AWS/Azure/GCP price moves. Oracle Health reliability and potential policy changes add non‑trivial tail risk.