Next Arc Research

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in PLTR.
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PLTR

Analysis as of: 2025-10-21
Palantir Technologies Inc.
AI-native enterprise and defense software company delivering data integration, decision intelligence and agentic AI platforms (Gotham, Foundry, AIP).
ai cloud defense enterprise software
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Trusted AI OS compounding into 2030
Palantir’s defense‑grade trust and agentic AIP give it non‑linear distribution via new data‑cloud alliances. With execution, EV can roughly double by 2030 despite today’s premium.

Analysis

Thesis
Palantir is becoming the trusted AI operating layer for defense and regulated industry; with agentic AIP, hyperscaler/data-cloud partnerships, and forward‑deployed delivery, it can compound into a high‑margin, standard platform by 2030.
Last Economy Alignment
Benefits from attention scarcity (trusted distribution), network capital (NATO/US Gov), and AI orchestration while staying asset-light in the compute flywheel.

Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.2x (from 4 most recent periods)
Reasoning
If Palantir scales AIP agents and the defense OS across the U.S./NATO and converts partnerships into distribution, revenue can reach a premium software scale by 2030, sustaining a top‑tier multiple and roughly doubling enterprise value from today.

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
Core risks are premium valuation, procurement/policy timing, and hyperscaler/data‑cloud bundling that could commoditize parts of AIP. Concentration in U.S. government creates step‑function volatility. Mitigants: high cash, asset‑light model, expanding commercial mix, and deep trust moats.