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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in TSM.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Largest dedicated semiconductor foundry; manufactures leading‑edge logic and advanced packaging (CoWoS/SoIC) for global chip designers and hyperscalers.
AI/HPC demand plus N2 and 3DFabric can push revenue >$200B by 2030. After a 2025 re‑rating, upside looks steady rather than explosive.
Analysis
Thesis
The compute-capex flywheel favors TSMC: N3→N2 leadership plus integrated 3DFabric packaging and sovereign capacity give it first call on AI/HPC silicon; by 2030 it can scale to >$200B revenue even with overseas cost drag and policy frictions.
Last Economy Alignment
TSMC sits at the choke point of compute; it converts capex into predictable, low‑latency wafer/packaging capacity that powers AI and automation.
Growth Outlook
Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.1x (from 4 most recent periods)
Reasoning
AI/HPC demand and 3DFabric mix can lift revenue to the low‑$200Bs by 2030, but today’s re‑rating already discounts much of that. Even assuming durable double‑digit margins and premium scarcity value, EV expansion looks closer to ~1.5× than a clean 2–5× unless TAM or pricing outperforms.
Risk Assessment
Overall Risk Summary
Key risks: policy/tariff whiplash, N2/A16 ramp timing, substrate & interposer supply, overseas fab cost dilution, and customer concentration. Strong balance sheet and execution history mitigate technology risk.
Trends
Key Changes
Record Q3’25: $33.1B revenue, 59.5% GM; 4Q guide raised.
2025 USD growth lifted to mid‑30s; capex reaffirmed up to $42B.
HPC/AI now majority mix; 3DFabric/CoWoS capacity still expanding.
US imposes 20% tariff on Taiwan goods; semis largely exempt; negotiations ongoing.