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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in AMZN.
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AMZN

Analysis as of: 2025-10-31
Amazon.com, Inc.
Operates a global commerce, advertising, and media platform; runs AWS, a leading cloud and AI infrastructure provider; expanding into LEO connectivity via Project Kuiper.
advertising ai cloud software space
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

AI capex spikes; cloud and ads accelerate
Scale compute, retail media, and Prime distribution are compounding again. With AWS growth re-accelerating and Kuiper adding option value, a 2–3x EV path by 2030 is credible if capex converts to capacity.

Analysis

Thesis
By 2030, AWS’s AI-first capacity, retail media’s closed-loop data, and Prime distribution compounding with Kuiper form a multi-rail platform capable of doubling EV as mix shifts to higher-margin compute, ads, and services.
Last Economy Alignment
Owns distribution and trust at consumer scale and can reinvest massive cash into compute, energy, and AI; strong network capital with sellers, advertisers, and enterprises.
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Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.2x (from 4 most recent analyses)
Reasoning
Cloud/AI, ads, and faster logistics drive a higher-margin mix and a modest re-rate. Versus peers (MSFT, GOOGL), capital intensity is heavier, so multiple expansion is bounded but 2–3x EV is achievable with sustained AI attach and retail media growth.
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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
Biggest risks are AI capex/power availability vs. ROI, ongoing antitrust obligations, and Kuiper execution. Offsetting strengths are AWS/Ads scale, Prime distribution, and custom silicon that lowers unit costs over time.
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