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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in CRWV.

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CRWV

Analysis as of: 2025-10-31

CoreWeave, Inc.

AI-focused cloud provider offering GPU-centric infrastructure and managed software for model training, inference and high‑performance computing.

ai cloud enterprise hardware software

On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Compute, power and contracts set the glide path

Contracts and preferred supply underpin rapid scale, but power and financing will dictate how far it runs by 2030. We see a credible 2–4× path on disciplined execution.

Analysis

Thesis

Privileged NVIDIA supply, multi‑year take‑or‑pay contracts (incl. $22.4B with OpenAI) and a growing software layer position CoreWeave to scale from sub‑$6B revenue in 2025 to a multi‑tens‑of‑billions AI utility by 2030—if power and capital are secured.

Last Economy Alignment

Owns/allocates scarce compute and power, compounds into models+tools; dense ecosystem ties and long‑term contracts fit the compute supremacy flywheel.

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Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)

4.3x (from 5 most recent analyses)

Reasoning

With contracted demand, NVIDIA-aligned supply, and a software‑augmented platform, scaling to the low‑$20Bs–$30Bs revenue range by 2030 is plausible. If investors value a de‑risked AI infra utility at mid/high single‑digit EV/sales, CoreWeave can roughly triple EV from today, assuming execution on power and financing.

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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary

Return profile is dominated by power procurement, financing cadence, NVIDIA supply, and customer mix. Contracts/backlog mitigate demand risk; leverage, policy shifts and hyperscaler competition remain key swing factors.

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Trends

Key Changes

OpenAI agreement expanded to $22.4B across 2025; backlog reached ~$30.1B.
Q2’25 revenue ~$1.21B; FY25 guide raised to $5.15–$5.35B.
Closed $1.75B senior notes and a $2.6B DDTL facility.
Signed $6.3B NVIDIA capacity order with backstop on unused capacity.
Attempted Core Scientific all‑stock acquisition terminated after vote.
Contracted power rose to ~2.2 GW; YE25 >900 MW active power target reiterated.

Thesis update

Tone shifts from 5–10× optionality to disciplined 2–5×: equity rerated sharply YTD, the Core Scientific power step‑change fell away, but backlog and NVIDIA ties strengthened.

Forecast update

Current EV is higher and near‑term power additions are tighter; we keep an aggressive growth view but moderate the step‑up to reflect financing/power realities.