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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in META.
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META

Analysis as of: 2025-10-31
Meta Platforms, Inc.
Operates Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Reality Labs; monetizes global attention with ads, messaging, and emerging AI-enabled devices/services.
advertising ai hardware media software
On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Core ads up; AI capex heavier; new surfaces emerging
Meta’s ads engine is accelerating while WhatsApp ads, business messaging and AI‑enabled glasses open fresh lanes. Capex is steep, but financing and scale support a credible 2–3x EV path by 2030.

Analysis

Thesis
Distribution at 3.5B people + the most scaled ad engine funds an AI-and-glasses platform push. By 2030, Meta can expand beyond social ads into business messaging, AI agents and wearables, compounding revenue and sustaining premium platform economics despite heavy compute capex.
Last Economy Alignment
Owns attention, trust and distribution; reinvests into compute and AI surfaces (agents, glasses). High capex but high flywheel leverage.
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Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.0x (from 4 most recent analyses)
Reasoning
Core ads keep compounding on higher relevance and video time. New surfaces—WhatsApp ads and business messaging, AI assistant surfaces and smart glasses—add revenue legs. Capital intensity is offset by off‑balance‑sheet DC financing and scaled cash generation. If Meta sustains platform status on phones and glasses, a re‑rate on a larger revenue base is plausible.
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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
Biggest risks are policy headwinds and AI capex ROI timing. Success hinges on scaling WhatsApp monetization, daily glasses usage, and converting Meta AI into paid or ad inventory without triggering regulatory pushback.
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