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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in NBIS.

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NBIS

Analysis as of: 2025-10-31

Nebius Group N.V.

AI-focused cloud infrastructure provider offering GPU clusters, AI platform tools and long-term capacity contracts to hyperscalers and enterprises.

ai cloud enterprise hardware

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Summary

Contracted GPUs turn into a 2030 engine

Pre‑sold AI capacity and fresh capital make scale credible; the upside now rests on energizing campuses, power, and mix, not proving demand.

Analysis

Thesis

Contracted AI compute (Microsoft) plus rapid campus build-outs and an in‑house AI cloud stack give Nebius a credible path to multi‑billion revenues by 2030; today’s re‑rate still leaves room if execution stays tight and capacity is financed against offtake.

Last Economy Alignment

Owns/scales scarce compute and power, monetized via long-term contracts and AI cloud UX; strong network capital with Microsoft/NVIDIA offsets commodity risk.

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Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)

4.8x (from 5 most recent analyses)

Reasoning

A five‑year Microsoft offtake de‑risks initial utilization and enables asset‑backed financing; if Nebius scales to low‑$20B revenue with a sustainable mid‑single‑digit EV/sales by 2030, upside remains even after the 2025 re‑rate. The near‑term market cap jump and added converts temper the upside versus earlier views.

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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary

Key sensitivities: energizing NJ and follow‑on campuses, timely NVIDIA/HBM supply, power and interconnect, Microsoft drawdown cadence, financing at acceptable terms, and regulatory optics. Any slip could impair utilization, pricing or dilution.

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Trends

Key Changes

Signed a $17.4–$19.4B, five‑year AI compute offtake with Microsoft.
Raised ~$4.3B (equity + upsized converts) to accelerate capacity build‑out.
Q2 revenue inflected to $105M; core AI infra achieved positive Adjusted EBITDA.
Power pipeline expanded, targeting >1 GW secured by end‑2026.
Share count and leverage increased; starting EV higher after re‑rate.

Thesis update

Thesis intact but matured: contracted demand plus funded capacity make the path more executable; the focus shifts from proving demand to executing energized capacity and multi‑tenant mix.

Forecast update

Re‑rating and added debt increase the starting line; even with stronger contracts, the room to compound to 2030 narrows compared to prior run.