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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in PLTR.

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PLTR

Analysis as of: 2025-10-31

Palantir Technologies Inc.

Palantir builds and deploys AI-native data platforms (Gotham, Foundry, AIP, Apollo) used by governments and enterprises for mission‑critical decisioning.

ai defense enterprise software

On Yahoo Finance ...

Summary

Top‑tier AI ops, modest upside from here

Execution is stellar and moats are real, but today’s multiple already implies leadership. We see strong revenue growth into 2030 with only low‑teens EV upside.

Analysis

Thesis

Trusted, shipping AI ops stack for defense and regulated industries with AIP agents, hyperscaler distribution and forward‑deployed delivery; revenue can scale materially by 2030, but today’s multiple already prices leadership so upside is modest.

Last Economy Alignment

Operates the AI decision layer where attention, trust, and reliability matter most; benefits from defense digitization and agentic AI while remaining compute‑light.

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Growth Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)

2.0x (from 5 most recent analyses)

Reasoning

Execution and trust moats support strong revenue growth through AIP agents, Army/UK MoD frameworks, and hyperscaler distribution. But starting valuation is extreme versus software peers; even with leadership sustained and mix shifting to higher‑velocity commercial, normalization of EV/revenue likely caps enterprise value expansion to low‑teens by 2030.

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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary

Main risks are premium valuation vs. peers, procurement/policy timing for large gov frameworks, and hyperscaler/data‑cloud bundling that could compress AIP pricing. Mitigants: sizeable net cash, asset‑light model, sticky deployments, expanding U.S. commercial mix, and security accreditations that are hard to replicate.

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Trends

Key Changes

Raised FY25 revenue guidance to ~4.15B and guided Q3 to ~50% Y/Y.
First $1B+ quarter delivered; Rule‑of‑40 near mid‑90s.
U.S. Army enterprise agreement streamlines awards; UK MoD partnership announced Sept 18, 2025.
Net cash ≈$6B; no debt; capex minimal.
Share price surge lifted market cap to ~480B, constraining forward multiples.

Thesis update

Core thesis intact—trusted AI ops layer scaling into defense and regulated enterprise—now with clearer government frameworks and stronger U.S. commercial traction.

Forecast update

Starting valuation is materially higher than last period; even optimistic execution now implies only modest EV expansion by 2030.