Amazon is leaning hard into AI, cloud, and Kuiper while its commerce and advertising flywheels keep compounding. We see a credible path to roughly doubling or slightly more in equity value by 2030, with capex and regulation as the main swing factors.

Amazon’s core flywheels—AWS, retail media, and Prime-driven commerce—plus new AI, Kuiper, and financialization plays can reasonably support ~2–3x equity value by 2030 despite heavy AI capex and regulatory friction.

Owns distribution, brand, and network capital at global scale while reinvesting aggressively into compute, AI, logistics, and satellites—structurally central to The Last Economy.

From a 2025 base of mid-teens revenue growth and double‑digit operating margins, Amazon can grow revenue to roughly $1.25T by 2030 as AWS AI, retail media, subscriptions, and logistics efficiency compound, with new Last Economy adjacencies (compute exchange, Kuiper-integrated edge, agentic merchant tools, identity and insurance services) adding high-margin layers. If investors reward the resulting mix-shift toward software-like and financial platform economics with a modest EV/revenue re‑rating from low‑3x to mid‑4x, equity value can climb to roughly 2–3x today’s level, landing in the lower half of the Street’s long‑term bull corridor without assuming heroic TAM capture or de‑risked regulation.

Key risks are the scale and timing of AI and Kuiper capex, intensifying hyperscaler and retail competition, and rising regulatory pressure. If AWS underperforms Azure and Google Cloud on AI workloads or if tariffs and antitrust actions blunt commerce and ad profitability, the expected re‑rating may not materialize and today’s premium could compress even with solid revenue growth.

$295.78