Alphabet is executing well on AI and cloud with strong cash generation, but its sheer size, regulatory overhang, and heavy AI capex mean 2030 upside is solid rather than explosive.

Alphabet is the leading full‑stack AI and attention platform; massive AI capex and regulatory drag cap multiple expansion, but double‑digit revenue growth plus new AI-native marketplaces still support ~1.8x value by 2030.

Owns core attention surfaces, leading models, and custom compute; deeply aligned with AI commoditizing cognition and shifting value to distribution, trust, and network capital.

From a ~3.9T equity value today, we model Alphabet compounding revenue in the low‑teens and roughly maintaining its rich EV/revenue multiple as it becomes a central AI and compute platform, yielding ~1.8x value by 2030—solid, but size and regulation constrain true hypergrowth.

Key risks are regulatory and political pressure on search and ads, sustained heavy AI capex potentially crimping free cash flow, and intense AI competition from hyperscalers and focused model labs. While core economics remain excellent, Alphabet’s size, visibility, and centrality to online information make it a policy target. Execution risk on large new AI initiatives (trust layer, agents, robotics, health) is non‑trivial, and realizing their full TAM by 2030 may prove slower than investors expect.

$312.60