Meta’s core ad engine is compounding faster again while a massive AI and compute build-out opens new revenue lines. If agents, commerce, and CoCompute scale, equity can plausibly a bit more than double by 2030 despite sizable regulatory and capex risks.

Meta is evolving from a dominant social ad network into an AI-native consumer and compute platform; if it executes on agents, commerce, and CoCompute while managing capex and regulation, 2030 revenue can more than double and equity plausibly ~2–3x despite mega-cap scale.

Owns attention, distribution, data, and rapidly scaling AI/compute; directly benefits from cognition commoditization, network capital and compute supremacy flywheel.

With digital ads, business messaging, AI agents, and CoCompute all scaling, Meta can grow revenue at high-teens annually while keeping a rich but not extreme EV/revenue multiple, yielding roughly a 2–3x equity outcome by 2030 from today’s elevated but still defensible valuation.

Meta faces a classic high-quality, high-capex, high-scrutiny profile. The biggest risks are regulatory/policy backlash against its social and ad businesses, under-monetization of massive AI and compute investments, and potential saturation of attention in core apps. If legal pressure, teen-usage bans, or forced divestitures bite hard just as AI infra spending peaks, free cash flow and multiples could compress. Conversely, strong unit economics, diversified advertisers, and structural AI advantages create substantial cushion if management calibrates capex and product rollout carefully.

$834.50