Nebius is scaling from a niche AI cloud to a multi‑billion‑dollar infrastructure platform on the back of Microsoft and Meta deals, with credible upside to 2030 but substantial capital, concentration, and valuation risk along the way.

Nebius is an AI‑native neocloud riding massive compute demand and anchor contracts with Microsoft and Meta; if it executes its capex plan and layers higher‑margin AI platforms on top of infrastructure, shareholder value can grow several‑fold by 2030 despite heavy financing and concentration risks.

Owns and operates AI compute, networks, and platform layers at scale with long‑term hyperscaler offtake; highly levered to compute supremacy, network capital, and trust moats in the Last Economy.

Nebius is transitioning from a sub‑$1B revenue base in 2025 to a multi‑billion AI infrastructure provider anchored by long‑duration Microsoft and Meta contracts plus rapid ARR growth. If it scales power capacity toward the planned multi‑GW footprint, keeps GPUs filled, and executes several additive platform plays (Token Factory, vertical AI factories, sovereign regions), 2030 revenue in the low‑$20B range is plausible and roughly in line with bullish consensus. Valuation should compress from today’s extreme sales multiples toward a still‑premium but more mature cloud/AI infra multiple. That combination—40x+ revenue growth with a move to high‑single‑digit EV/sales—supports a mid‑single‑digit EV uplift versus today, landing in the 5–7x equity value range by 2030, assuming no major execution or financing shock.

Nebius is a high‑beta bet on sustained AI infrastructure demand. Technical delivery risk is relatively low versus peers, but the model depends on massive, ongoing capex funded in volatile capital markets, alongside concentration in a few hyperscaler customers and intense competition from CoreWeave and the public clouds. Any combination of AI spending slowdown, energy or supply‑chain disruption, regulatory friction, or equity/credit market tightening could force slower growth, contract repricing, or dilutive capital raises, sharply reducing equity upside from today’s valuation.

$155.89