NVIDIA is likely to grow revenue several-fold by 2030 as the core compute rail of the AI economy, but today’s 4T+ valuation already embeds much of that success. Our work sees room for roughly a low‑teens annual return, not another explosive 10x from here.

NVIDIA is the central compute rail of the AI economy; even with multiple compression and rising competition, sustained hyperscaler and sovereign AI buildouts plus new software, security, and marketplace businesses support high-teens revenue growth and low‑teens equity returns into 2030 from an already enormous base.

NVIDIA sits at the core of compute supremacy, AI factories, and global AI infrastructure, with deep ecosystems and standards that benefit directly as cognitive labor commoditizes.

From a 4T+ valuation, I see NVIDIA roughly doubling enterprise value by 2030, driven by 5x revenue growth but offset by substantial multiple compression as AI hardware matures and competition rises. The company scales from a 2025 AI infrastructure leader into a broader AI platform—sovereign AI factories, AI security, vertical models, and agent marketplaces—lifting its share of a multi‑trillion TAM, but investors demand a lower EV/revenue multiple once growth decelerates and cyclicality appears. In this setup, equity returns cluster in low‑teens annually, with plenty of volatility, rather than the 3–4x+ upside implied by the most aggressive bull cases.

Key risks are valuation, cyclic AI capex, and geopolitics. A sharper-than-expected pullback in hyperscaler and sovereign spending, faster adoption of custom accelerators (Google TPUs, AWS/Meta silicon) or Chinese alternatives, or tighter export controls could flatten growth and compress margins. From today’s 4T+ base, even modest disappointments could trigger a large de‑rating. NVIDIA also takes on new execution and political risk if it moves into AI factory JVs, compute exchanges, and security standards while staying dependent on TSMC, memory vendors, and a small set of hyperscale buyers.

$248.64