Palantir is executing like a core Western AI and defense platform, with 50%+ revenue growth and elite cash margins, but today’s ~400B valuation already discounts huge 2030 success. Our 2030 view sees revenues far above consensus yet only mid‑single to high‑single‑digit annualized shareholder returns as multiples normalize.

Palantir is executing like the core Western AI/defense operating system with extraordinary growth and cash generation, but today’s mega‑cap, bubble‑level valuation means even a 5–7x revenue ramp to 2030 likely only delivers mid‑single to high‑single‑digit annual shareholder returns.

Central nervous system for Western AI, defense, and critical infrastructure; deeply aligned with compute supremacy, security inversion, and network‑centric operations.

At ~400B market cap and >80x current-year sales, Palantir already prices in extraordinary AI success. I model revenue growing roughly 7x to ~30B by 2030 as AIP, defense, and commercial platforms compound into critical infrastructure and sovereign compute roles. But I also assume heavy multiple compression toward a still‑premium ~18x EV/revenue, closer to where today’s top-tier SaaS names trade. That combination lifts enterprise value only ~1.4x by 2030, implying ~7% annualized equity returns: solid, but far from the revenue growth headline, and well short of a 5–10x outcome unless the valuation bubble persists or revenue overshoots even this bullish operational case.

Business risk is now moderate: products work, customers are sticky, and AI adoption is pulling demand. The dominant risks are external—valuation, geopolitics, and regulation. At ~400B market cap and >80x sales, Palantir is priced for perfection; any slowdown in AIP momentum, defense funding surprises, or an AI‑bubble unwind could compress multiples even if revenue tracks my bullish path. Regulatory or political backlash around surveillance, export controls, or data localization could also limit upside from critical infrastructure and sovereign compute lines. Conversely, strong cash generation and no debt give the company resilience and firepower to reinvest through volatility.

$175.00