We view TSMC as the central bottleneck of global AI compute, capable of mid‑teens revenue growth and a bit more than 2x enterprise value by 2030, but with meaningful geopolitical and valuation risk. Investors are paying a premium for its dominance, so execution must stay flawless and the Taiwan situation stable for the upside to realize.

TSMC sits at the choke point of global AI compute; if it executes through geopolitical and capex risk, revenues can roughly double and equity value a bit more than double by 2030, keeping it a core Last Economy infrastructure asset.

Owns scarce advanced compute and packaging capacity, deep ecosystem and trust; highly leveraged to AI, but exposed to geopolitics and policy shocks.

TSMC should benefit disproportionately from the AI compute boom, with advanced nodes and packaging constrained well into the second half of the decade. If it maintains clear process leadership and a majority foundry share while layering on higher-margin services (design enablement, secure/sovereign partitions, analytics), revenue can grow at mid‑teens annually. Compared with Intel, Samsung Foundry and GlobalFoundries, TSMC deserves a structural premium but not today’s extreme EV/revenue gap, so some multiple compression is likely even as earnings compound quickly. That supports a bit more than a 2x move in enterprise value by 2030—toward the Street’s bull case but not beyond it—rather than a 5–10x hypergrowth outcome already constrained by sheer scale and geopolitical risk.

The key risks are geopolitical (Taiwan, US‑China tech policy), extreme capital intensity, and a rich multiple already embedding years of AI optimism. Overseas fabs in the US, Japan and Europe may pressure margins and returns on capital for a prolonged period, especially if AI demand normalizes or policy shifts. Customer and geographic concentration plus foundry competition from Intel and Samsung add further uncertainty, even though TSMC’s technology and ecosystem lead remain strong.

$354.21