AI workload scaling plus higher-margin advertising and automation can expand free cash flow by 2030 despite heavy infrastructure investment. Regulation and power availability remain the swing variables.

By 2030, Amazon can convert today’s AI + logistics capex wave into durable cash-flow via AWS capacity monetization, ads density on commerce intent, and automation-led cost-per-unit declines—while new “trust + security” primitives reduce fraud and improve conversion.

Amazon compounds Material (data centers, power, logistics, robotics) and Network (Prime, marketplace, AWS ecosystem) into distribution for AI—positioning it to monetize scarce compute and trusted commerce flows.

Amazon’s near-term story is not “more e-commerce,” it’s monetization density and utilization: AWS sells scarce AI capacity (including custom silicon), Ads keeps taking share of brand budgets tied to shopping intent, and robotics/ops software keeps reducing fulfillment cost per unit. If these three engines compound together, investors can underwrite a cleaner FCF profile by 2030 even with elevated infrastructure spend, supporting a durable premium versus retail peers (but still a discount vs asset-light software platforms).

The binding risks are structural capital intensity (AI + power buildout), regulatory remedies that reduce monetization leverage in marketplace/Prime/ads, and competitive pricing pressure in AI infrastructure that turns scale into a margin giveaway.

$295.50