The core setup remains a scarcity compounder: rising lithography intensity and service attach can drive durable growth. The main limiter is policy and customer capex timing, not technology relevance.

ASML remains the choke-point for leading-edge compute scaling; if High-NA ramps and “holistic lithography” shifts mix toward software/service outcomes, revenue can compound while cyclicality falls—supporting a still-premium 2030 multiple despite export-control drag.

Compute demand (AI/HPC) increases lithography intensity; ASML’s monopoly + installed-base telemetry lets it monetize accuracy/uptime and organize fab entropy, while geopolitics makes it strategic infrastructure.

ASML’s growth is less about “more chips” and more about “more patterning per chip”: AI accelerators, advanced DRAM, and continued node transitions increase lithography tool intensity and service attach. The non-linear upside is mix: outcomes-based service, security/compliance bundles, and fleet-analytics products can make the business feel more recurring and less cyclical, supporting a premium multiple. The constraint is not product relevance; it’s export controls, supply-chain capacity, and the reality that leading-edge buyers are few and highly cyclical in capex timing. Net: strong compounding potential, but much of the inevitability is already recognized in valuation, keeping upside closer to a quality-compounder than a 5–10x story.

The dominant risks are policy-driven (export controls, licensing, and potential escalation around China), concentration-driven (a handful of leading-edge buyers and critical suppliers), and timing-driven (High-NA adoption curve + customer node schedules). Even if long-term demand is intact, a flat-to-choppy 2026–2028 industry tape can compress the multiple and delay the “inevitable” revenue ramp.

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