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Disclosure: The author does not hold a position in AVAV.

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AVAV

Analysis as of: 2025-12-27

AeroVironment, Inc.

A defense technology company focused on uncrewed aircraft systems, loitering munitions, counter-drone systems, and adjacent space/cyber/directed-energy capabilities (post-BlueHalo).

aerospace ai defense robotics space

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Summary

Scaling autonomy while building recurring defense software

A path to 2030 exists where hardware throughput expands and higher-margin software/operations attaches. The gating factors are integration execution, cash conversion, and defensibility versus primes and fast followers.

Analysis

Thesis

AeroVironment can compound by turning scaled “drones + counter-drones” manufacturing into a higher-attach, software-and-operations-led defense platform, if BlueHalo integration converts bookings/backlog into predictable delivery cadence and recurring mission software/services by 2030.

Last Economy Alignment

Autonomy and counter-autonomy are becoming “ammo + infrastructure”; AV sits on the hardware+software edge loop where AI compresses time-to-scale and raises the value of trusted warfighter workflows.

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Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)

2.3x (from 4 most recent analyses)

Reasoning

We underwrite durable “attritable autonomy + counter-UAS” demand plus mix shift: BlueHalo expands wallet share, while AV_Halo and managed protection increase recurring revenue and switching costs. We assume AV executes supply-chain scaling and reduces integration drag, sustaining a growth multiple above mature primes but below pure-software leaders.

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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary

The 2030 upside is less about “is there demand?” and more about repeatable production + cash conversion: integrating BlueHalo, avoiding cost overruns, converting backlog/IDIQs into shipped units, and building a credible recurring software/managed-service attach rate under export and liability constraints.

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Trends

Key Changes

No material new company filings detected since the December 10, 2025 8-K/A backlog correction and the Q2 FY2026 10-Q.
Investor focus remains on integration-driven margin noise vs. strong bookings and contract momentum from early December 2025 announcements.
Share count and balance-sheet posture post-financing are now clearer, shifting debate from solvency to execution/cash conversion.

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Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target

$377.90

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