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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in EQIX.

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EQIX

Analysis as of: 2025-12-27

Equinix, Inc.

Equinix is a global carrier-neutral data center and interconnection platform that sells colocation, power, and private connectivity across major metros.

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Jump to: Summary • Analysis • Opportunity • Risk • Trends • Third Party Analyst Consensus

Summary

Interconnection moat meets AI-era power scarcity

A premium digital-infrastructure compounder if it converts scarce metro power into high-density capacity and higher attach-rate services. The main risk is capex and financing undermining per-share outcomes.

Analysis

Thesis

Equinix compounds as the neutral “exchange layer” for AI-era hybrid connectivity: scarce metro power + dense ecosystems + productized interconnection let it keep premium pricing and grow high-margin attach, even through a heavy build cycle.

Last Economy Alignment

Strong fit: AI makes reliable power+proximity+trusted interconnection scarce; EQIX’s ecosystem density and neutrality raise switching costs and expand attach.

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Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)

1.7x (from 5 most recent analyses)

Reasoning

EQIX’s upside is less “more cabinets” and more monetizing scarcity: high-density AI-ready builds, faster lease-up in top metros, and accelerating interconnection/digital-services attach. If it sustains ecosystem-driven pricing while funding growth without a balance-sheet accident, it can hold a premium infrastructure multiple into 2030.

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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary

The binding risks are physical and financial: (1) time-to-power and permitting, (2) sustained high capex with acceptable per-share outcomes, and (3) pricing power versus hyperscalers and other data center landlords. A de-rate scenario is plausible if rates stay high while incremental projects earn lower returns or lease-up slows.

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Trends

Key Changes

Dec 2025: announced an additional Singapore solar PPA to expand renewable supply and scaling options.
Q3 results (Oct 29, 2025) reinforced bookings momentum and reiterated the capacity expansion trajectory into 2026.
Share price remains well below the 52-week high, modestly improving forward return setup if execution holds.

Forecast update

Stronger near-term operating momentum plus incremental power-procurement progress improved the probability-weighted upside from today’s valuation.

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Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target

$953.90

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