A credible-neutral settlement winner with major scaling upgrades shipped, but the long-run upside depends on recapturing value from the rollup era.

ETH is a leveraged claim on neutral, institutional-grade programmable settlement: if stablecoins/RWAs + agentic payments scale on Ethereum-aligned rails and L1 re-captures a modest share of execution spend (fees + ordering), today’s low monetization can flip into a durable 2030 re-rate.

In a world where cognition is commoditized, value concentrates in trust, standards, and settlement. Ethereum’s credible-neutral brand + ERC integration surface + security budget make it a strong “default rail” candidate for tokenized dollars and onchain capital markets.

ETH is already large, so upside by 2030 is less about “more users” and more about (1) Ethereum becoming the default settlement layer for regulated stablecoins and tokenized assets, and (2) re-monetizing the rollup superstructure via data-availability demand, better cross-domain UX, and improved ordering/value-capture mechanisms. 2025 shows low fee capture on L1, but the strategic setup is coherent: ship scaling safely (Pectra/Fusaka), compress end-user costs, then let stablecoin/RWA flows and agentic payment activity compound. If ETH holds its institutional credibility premium and L1 captures even a mid-single-digit share of global onchain execution spend by 2030, a 5–10x network value outcome is plausible.

Ethereum’s core risk is economic, not technical: it can become the world’s settlement standard while most durable cash flows accrue to rollups, wallets, and private execution/ordering layers. Secondary risks: validator/operator concentration, censorship and compliance pressure around block building, and competition from faster monolithic chains that bundle UX + monetization.

Thesis is broadly intact; the main update is lower delivery risk (major upgrades shipped) but unchanged uncertainty on L1 value capture versus rollups.

$11800.00