The upside rests on converting certification progress into repeatable, high-utilization corridors, using acquired passenger operations to de-risk demand. The main risk is that aerospace timelines and infrastructure bottlenecks delay scale and force dilution before unit economics are proven.

Joby’s non-linear upside is converting certification progress into a regulated mobility network: Blade + Uber distribution proves demand pre-eVTOL, Toyota-backed industrialization lifts throughput, and ops + software layers can compound once reliability and utilization are demonstrated.

In a world where cognition is cheap, trust, verification, and distribution win: regulated safety + route access + app aggregation are compounding assets. Joby is compute-enabled (autonomy, ops optimization) but still constrained by heavy “atoms” (certification, manufacturing, infrastructure).

Joby’s value inflects when the market stops treating it as a long-dated prototype and starts underwriting a repeatable, regulator-approved operating protocol. Blade’s passenger business plus Uber distribution reduces go-to-market risk and can create a habit loop before eVTOL scale. If Joby hits a credible manufacturing cadence, early routes can turn into a durable network of permits, procedures, data, and uptime—harder to copy than an aircraft design alone. We assume the market still pays a premium for the winner-take-most “category platform” optionality, but not a hype-cycle multiple, given capital intensity and execution risk.

The stacked risk is still sequencing and optics: (1) certification timing, (2) manufacturing quality at rate, (3) early-route reliability/utilization, and (4) financing/dilution while proving unit economics. A single safety incident or regulatory delay can reset adoption and cost of capital, and even a “successful” launch can underwhelm if vertiport power/throughput and operating cadence cap utilization.

Slightly higher confidence in scaling narrative due to fresh manufacturing cadence disclosures; core thesis unchanged.

$13.43