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Disclosure: The author does not hold a position in MBLY.

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MBLY

Analysis as of: 2025-12-27

Mobileye Global Inc.

Develops vision-based driver-assistance and autonomous-driving systems, including silicon, software, and mapping, sold to global automakers.

ai automotive semiconductors software transportation

On Yahoo Finance ...

Jump to: Summary • Analysis • Opportunity • Risk • Trends • Third Party Analyst Consensus

Summary

From ADAS supplier to safety-data platform

The setup is a valuation reset with operating recovery already visible. The 2030 upside depends on proving higher content-per-vehicle and recurring software/data revenue that warrants a multiple beyond auto suppliers.

Analysis

Thesis

MBLY is a depressed-price autonomy compounder: if it converts its ADAS installed base into higher content-per-vehicle (hands-free → eyes-off) plus recurring safety/mapping software, it can re-rate from auto-supplier multiples toward a software-enabled compute platform by 2030.

Last Economy Alignment

AI makes perception/validation more scalable; the scarce assets become safety trust, distribution via automakers, and a compounding road-data/map loop—areas where Mobileye is structurally positioned.

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Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)

5.7x (from 3 most recent analyses)

Reasoning

Today the market mostly prices MBLY as cyclical ADAS silicon. By 2030, the upside case is a mix shift: more dollars per vehicle (premium hands-free systems, then eyes-off) plus recurring software/data line-items (mapping freshness, safety evidence, security). If that becomes visible in reported revenue quality (higher recurring mix, improving margins), MBLY can sustain a higher EV/revenue multiple than auto suppliers, though still well below AI infrastructure leaders.

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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary

The key risk is that autonomy value accrues to automakers and broad chip platforms, not Mobileye: if MBLY cannot prove durable software/data attach and timelines for higher autonomy slip, the market will keep it on a low auto-supplier multiple despite solid technology.

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Trends

Key Changes

No new Mobileye financial disclosures since the Oct 23, 2025 quarterly release; attention shifts to FY2025 results and 2026 outlook on Jan 29, 2026.
Equity value remains near the low end of the 52-week range, signaling the market still discounts near-term autonomy upside.
Public narrative remains dominated by (a) ADAS normalization and (b) whether higher-ASP autonomy programs become commercially repeatable.

Forecast update

This run assumes slower multiple expansion until recurring software/data revenue is clearly reported and scaled, reducing reliance on long-dated driverless optionality.

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Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target

$18.93

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