A premium attention network that can keep raising advertiser ROI with automation while adding new monetizable surfaces in messaging. The core debate is whether capex and regulation cap returns before new revenue engines mature.

Meta can reach a higher 2030 earnings power by turning ads into an increasingly autonomous “AI ROI machine” while monetizing WhatsApp as a business/commercial rail; the swing factor is whether capex + regulation stay containable enough to preserve premium valuation.

Owns scarce global attention + social graph; can deploy AI to monetize prediction at scale, but is constrained by policy and large compute buildouts.

Meta’s core advantage is distribution: it can deploy better ranking, creative generation, and measurement into its ad auction faster than most peers, keeping advertiser ROI high and defending share as ads become more algorithmic. The non-linear upside is WhatsApp monetization (business messaging, trust/verification, and lighter-weight commerce primitives) that expands monetizable surfaces without needing new user acquisition. The multiple is supported by durability of the attention graph and the company’s willingness to fund frontier-scale compute, but capped by persistent regulatory and capex skepticism.

The dominant risk is a multi-year compute and data-center build where costs (capex, energy, depreciation) rise faster than new AI + messaging revenue. The second risk is policy: competition/privacy interventions can restrict product bundling, targeting, and WhatsApp platform rules right as Meta tries to turn messaging into a larger profit pool. Finally, attention competition (short-form video, creator platforms, AI-first discovery) can slow engagement and limit ad load/price.

Upgrade reflects higher confidence that WhatsApp monetization + AI automation can become a second engine large enough to offset sustained infra spend.

$824.65