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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in MPWR.
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MPWR

Analysis as of: 2025-12-27
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
MPS is a fabless designer of high-performance power semiconductors and modules used in data centers, automotive and industrial electronics.
ai automotive enterprise hardware semiconductors
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Summary

Premium power silicon levered to AI constraints
Power efficiency and uptime are becoming the limiting factors in scaling AI infrastructure. The upside case depends on keeping premium sockets while layering stickier telemetry/security value.

Analysis

Thesis
As AI infrastructure becomes power- and reliability-limited, MPS can keep taking premium “power bottleneck” sockets (controllers + integrated modules) and add sticky software/security layers (telemetry, provenance) that defend pricing and raise dollar-content per rack and per vehicle through 2030.
Last Economy Alignment
Compute scaling shifts the bottleneck to power efficiency, thermals, and uptime; MPS sells the shovels and can extend into verification/telemetry where trust and reliability become scarce assets.
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Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
1.8x (from 5 most recent analyses)
Reasoning
MPS is positioned in the part of semiconductors where AI-driven system constraints show up first: converting watts into reliable compute. Its advantage is not just silicon performance but also system-level power architecture plus “design-win gravity” from deep apps engineering. If it keeps expanding content per platform (more integrated modules, more rails, more monitoring) while extending into lightweight software/security features, it can sustain above-market growth while remaining relatively capital-light versus integrated analog peers.
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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
The company-risk is not “can they build power ICs,” but whether premium sockets stay premium. The main failure mode is customer-driven commoditization (multi-sourcing, in-house designs, standard rack architectures) that compresses both growth and valuation even if MPS executes well operationally.
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Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target
$1180.93
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