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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in ON.
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ON

Analysis as of: 2025-12-27
ON Semiconductor Corporation
onsemi designs and manufactures power and sensing semiconductors used mainly in automotive, industrial, energy infrastructure, and AI data center power systems.
ai automotive energy hardware semiconductors
On Yahoo Finance ...
Jump to: Summary • Analysis • Opportunity • Risk • Trends • Third Party Analyst Consensus

Summary

Power efficiency plus buybacks set a 2030 path
The upside case relies on AI power becoming a durable growth leg while auto/industrial revert to mid-cycle utilization. Capital returns are a second engine, supporting per-share outcomes if cash generation holds.

Analysis

Thesis
If AI power becomes a durable “new end-market” while auto/industrial normalize, onsemi can compound into 2030 via higher power content-per-system (power stages + packaging), selective GaN expansion, and sustained buybacks that support a higher mid-cycle multiple.
Last Economy Alignment
The Last Economy’s binding constraint is watts, not ideas—onsemi sells efficiency, reliability, and secure supply for electrification and AI power conversion.
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Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.1x (from 5 most recent analyses)
Reasoning
The setup is a mix + content story: AI data-center power and next-gen GaN widen served opportunity while auto/industrial revert toward mid-cycle utilization. With disciplined capital returns and modest multiple expansion from today’s mid-cycle valuation, the stock can plausibly deliver a low-single-digit revenue CAGR but a higher equity CAGR through re-rating plus buybacks.
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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
The main risk is a “stuck mid-cycle” outcome: auto/industrial stay weak while AI power becomes price-competitive and multi-sourced. In that world, utilization, mix, and margin recovery lag, turning buybacks into financial engineering rather than true compounding.
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Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target
$59.29
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