The upside case depends on turning cross-chain complexity into a standardized settlement product with real fee capture. The downside case is continued high usage but weak monetization in a commoditized L2 market.

Polygon’s non-linear upside is converting “cheap blockspace” into a cross-chain settlement + payments platform: if AggLayer becomes a default interoperability/liquidity layer while Polygon PoS stays payments-grade, POL can re-rate on expanding fee surfaces (interop, proving, intents) rather than just low gas fees.

Aligned via network capital (wallet/exchange/payments integrations) and a credible path to become a settlement standard; pressured by L2 commoditization and weak token value capture unless new fee surfaces ship.

POL can plausibly grow 5–10× by 2030 if Polygon shifts the narrative from “L2 throughput” to “settlement and safety primitives” that institutions and consumer wallets pay for. The core bet is that interoperability (AggLayer), payments-grade reliability, and security/verification add recurring fee surfaces that scale faster than raw gas fees. If that happens, keeping today’s valuation multiple on a larger revenue base is enough to drive a ~6× outcome without assuming a euphoric cycle peak.

The big risk is value accrual: Polygon can have high usage but low monetization, while competition (other L2s + modular stacks) and regulation compress take-rates. The bull case requires Polygon to operationalize AggLayer as a standard (not just tech), attach fee capture to POL, and keep UX simple despite cross-chain complexity.

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