Not logged in? You're viewing the Free tier. Join for free or log in to access your membership content.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in RDVT.
← Back to Free Index

RDVT

Analysis as of: 2025-12-27
Red Violet, Inc.
red violet provides cloud-based identity intelligence and analytics for identity verification, fraud/risk workflows, investigations, and safety checks via APIs and applications.
ai cybersecurity enterprise finance software
Jump to: SummaryAnalysisOpportunityRiskTrendsThird Party Analyst Consensus

Summary

Identity intelligence scaling as fraud automation accelerates
AI-enabled fraud raises the value of real-time verification and audit trails, supporting durable demand for embedded identity decisions. Upside requires multi-vertical expansion while navigating privacy rules and incumbent bundling.

Analysis

Thesis
As AI makes scams cheaper and faster, enterprises shift spend from manual review to real-time, auditable identity decisions; RDVT can compound a high-margin identity graph into embedded trust APIs and privacy-safe signal products while staying asset-light and using buybacks to amplify per-share value by 2030.
Last Economy Alignment
RDVT sells “trust under attack” (identity + fraud signals) where AI offense outpaces humans; value moves to verification, auditability, and workflow embedding.
Upgrade to Allocator to also access: Thesis Critique

Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.2x (from 5 most recent analyses)
Reasoning
RDVT is already scaling with strong cash generation and high gross margins, and its data+workflow position is strengthened as AI increases fraud frequency and forces enterprises to automate trust decisions. The non-linear upside comes from embedding identity intelligence into third-party workflows (platform connectors, agent-facing interfaces) and adding privacy-safe network signals that improve accuracy and switching costs. Multiple risk remains (small-cap liquidity and bundling by incumbents), but durable retention and expanding use cases support a still-premium revenue multiple into 2030.
Upgrade to Allocator to also access: Simplified Opportunity Explanation

Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
The business works, but the equity outcome is most sensitive to (1) privacy/data-access policy shocks, (2) incumbent bundling that reframes pricing power, and (3) concentration (major data supplier economics and the REALTOR-association channel). Premium valuation and thin liquidity can magnify drawdowns on any deceleration.
Upgrade to Allocator to also access: Tech Maturity Risk Score, Adoption Timing Risk Score, Moat Strength Risk Score, Capital Needs Risk Score, Regulatory Risk Score, Execution Risk Score, Concentration Risk Score, Unit Economics Risk Score, Valuation Risk Score, Macro Sensitivity Risk Score

Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target
$68.50
Upgrade to Reader to also access: Bull Case, Base Case, Bear Case