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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in RGTI.

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RGTI

Analysis as of: 2025-12-27

Rigetti Computing, Inc.

Rigetti designs superconducting quantum processors and delivers quantum computing via cloud access plus on-premises systems for government, research, and early enterprise users.

cloud defense hardware quantum

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Jump to: Summary • Analysis • Opportunity • Risk • Trends • Third Party Analyst Consensus

Summary

Quantum option value, priced for milestones

A credible path exists to non-linear revenue growth via sovereign leases and control-stack commercialization, but current valuation demands on-time execution and real utilization.

Analysis

Thesis

Rigetti is a high-volatility quantum hardware call option: if it converts its end-2025 to 2027 roadmap into sovereign leases, enterprise-grade reliability, and “picks-and-shovels” control products, revenue quality can shift non-linearly by 2030—but the stock already prices major technical credibility and any adoption slip can de-rate fast.

Last Economy Alignment

Aligned to compute geopolitics (sovereign deployments, export-controlled stacks) and to the “post-profit reinvest” playbook, but utility-scale demand remains timing-sensitive through 2030.

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Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)

2.3x (from 5 most recent analyses)

Reasoning

Upside comes from changing the business mix from grant-like work to procurable products: (1) multi-year sovereign “leased systems + SLA” deployments, (2) standardized control hardware/software sold broadly, and (3) security/assurance layers that shorten sales cycles. If those become repeatable motions, investors can underwrite a larger, more durable revenue base than today’s lumpy profile—even if near-term GAAP profits stay thin.

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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary

The central risk is a timeline mismatch: markets reward near-term milestone headlines, but customers pay for reliability, repeatability, and clear ROI. If the end-2025 system and the 2026–2027 roadmap slip, or if milestones don’t translate into utilization and multi-year contracts, valuation can de-rate sharply. Even with technical wins, competition from better-capitalized platforms can absorb the economic rents.

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Trends

Key Changes

Quantum pure-plays continued to see fresh/expanded sell-side coverage and sector-level volatility rather than company-specific fundamental changes.
Rigetti’s most recent disclosed roadmap remains anchored on end-2025 delivery and 2026–2027 scaling targets; no newer milestones were announced in the past 7–10 days.
Investor attention has remained focused on commercialization signals (repeatable system sales/leases) versus research-only progress.

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Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target

$31.22

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