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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in RXRX.

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RXRX

Analysis as of: 2025-12-27

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Recursion is a clinical-stage biotech using machine learning plus automated wet labs to discover and develop small-molecule medicines and to run partner-funded discovery programs.

ai biotech healthcare software

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Summary

From milestone biotech to platform-plus-product by 2030

The upside hinges on turning a strong discovery engine into repeatable clinical translation and paid, productized clinical-tech offerings. The downside is continued milestone lumpiness and dilution before commercial validation arrives.

Analysis

Thesis

If Recursion converts its partner-funded discovery engine into repeatable clinical translation and productizes pieces of its clinical-tech stack, it can re-rate from lumpy milestones to a platform+product biotech by 2030.

Last Economy Alignment

Biology R&D is cognition-heavy and increasingly automated; Recursion’s advantage is owning data-generation loops, workflow integration, and enough compute to compound model quality, while monetizing via partnerships and pipeline.

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Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)

3.9x (from 5 most recent analyses)

Reasoning

The 2030 upside is less about “one more model” and more about packaging repeatable, paid offerings that pharma budgets can adopt annually (discovery + clinical operations), while advancing at least one internal program to real commercial revenue. If that mix shifts revenue from milestone-lumpy to more predictable and higher-margin, a mid-single-digit revenue multiple becomes realistic; if not, the stock likely stays tethered to cash runway and readout timing.

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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary

The core risk is translation speed: without repeatable patient efficacy and a clearer productized revenue model, the company stays catalyst- and financing-driven. Secondary risks are dilution (given burn), competitive convergence (tools commoditizing), and regulatory/commercial friction if it sells trial optimization into a market that also views it as a pipeline competitor.

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Trends

Key Changes

Dec 18, 2025: JPMorgan upgraded RXRX to Overweight (target raised).
Dec 21, 2025: Aggregated sell-side 1-year price target increased (per published compilation).
No new company-filed financials since the Nov 5, 2025 Q3 filing; sentiment shift is mostly analyst-side.

Forecast update

Upside skew increased mainly because the equity (and EV) is lower while runway and the platform-to-clinic narrative remain intact; recent analyst actions reinforce that view.

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Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target

$7.14

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