The core software is already real and sticky; the 2030 upside depends on turning that stickiness into broader enterprise standardization and higher-value, trust-heavy SKUs. The key watch item is sustained discipline on capital intensity while expanding recurring economics from partners.

SDGR can compound like an R&D “operating system” if it keeps therapeutics option value partner-funded, grows hosted enterprise software, and productizes trust (auditability/security) so computational evidence becomes procurement- and regulator-ready, turning episodic science wins into repeatable, higher-ARPA contracts.

It sells prediction/optimization (entropy reduction) into a huge R&D cost center; moat can deepen via workflow lock-in, trust, and partnerships rather than human cognition.

Today SDGR is valued more like niche scientific software than a scaled platform. The upside case is not “AI hype”; it’s repeatability: more hosted penetration, more $1M+ enterprise standardization, and better attachment of security/audit modules that reduce perceived risk for regulated R&D. If management maintains its 2025 pivot away from self-funding late-stage clinical work, the equity story becomes less binary and more comparable to durable enterprise software with a biotech call option. That combination supports both higher revenue visibility and modest multiple expansion by 2030.

The main risks are (1) commoditization of “good-enough” modeling, (2) slow enterprise adoption cycles that limit pricing/seat expansion, and (3) strategic drift back into capital-intensive, binary clinical bets that reintroduce dilution and multiple compression.

$26.84