The upside case is a transition from announcements to bankable, repeatable projects that monetize IP at scale. The downside is prolonged pre-fleet status where funding needs dominate returns.

NuScale is an “compute-for-power” option: if ENTRA1/TVA and other pipelines convert into bankable, repeatable builds (not just announcements), its NRC-approved design + licensing/services model can scale non-linearly into 2030; if not, dilution and timeline drift dominate equity outcomes.

AI-era electricity scarcity rewards firm, clean baseload and regulatory throughput; NuScale is leveraged to that, but nuclear timelines slow the flywheel.

The setup is a credibility step-change: once one or two projects become financeable with repeatable contracting, NuScale’s IP-led model can shift from bespoke engineering to a productized deployment playbook where each incremental site adds licensing, engineering, and lifecycle services. The market will still discount nuclear schedule risk, but a real “build pipeline” (not just MOUs) can support a durable premium versus slow-moving utility assets.

The dominant risk is “bankability velocity”: converting headline-scale programs into binding contracts, insured schedules, and financeable structures fast enough to avoid value transfer to new equity. A second-order risk is policy whiplash—accelerated licensing helps, but politicized oversight can increase reversals, litigation, and execution friction. Finally, even with demand, nuclear construction is an operations game; a single high-profile delay can freeze capital formation for years.

Thesis is largely intact; near-term emphasis increased on dilution/financing after the authorized-share expansion became effective.

$36.40