A credible path exists to expand from chip design workflows into broader physics-driven engineering, lifting wallet share and recurring usage. The main swing factors are integration execution, policy friction, and whether AI monetization stays premium.

Synopsys can compound value through 2030 by turning mission-critical chip design + physics simulation into a unified, AI-accelerated engineering platform with higher wallet share, more metered cloud usage, and new security/compliance attach—while keeping a premium software multiple despite export-control and integration drag.

Owns high-trust workflow chokepoints (design-to-signoff + simulation) where autonomy and data-driven productivity gains monetize well; main friction is geopolitics and post-merger debt.

Synopsys sits on the critical path of AI-era hardware development, where design complexity and verification burden rise faster than headcount. The Ansys combination expands the product from “chip tools” to system engineering, raising share-of-wallet and making Synopsys harder to displace. The upside is not just more seats; it is more automated runs, more cross-domain workflows, and more recurring attach (security provenance, compliant cloud delivery, and digital-twin-like subscriptions). Against close comps (Cadence and large engineering software vendors), a premium but not euphoric revenue multiple remains plausible if integration execution stays clean and export-control exposure is managed via compliant delivery options.

The key risks are (1) Ansys integration while carrying meaningful debt (innovation pacing and culture), (2) export-control and multi-jurisdiction compliance that can block or reshape sales in key regions, and (3) competitive pricing pressure if AI reduces perceived differentiation in verification/signoff workflows. If any two hit simultaneously, the stock can de-rate even with continued revenue growth.

$558.18