Execution is the unlock: convert contracted work into repeatable, SLA-priced RF and weather decision products while containing capex. If break-even credibility is established by late 2026, a mid-single-digit revenue multiple is plausible by 2030.

Spire can re-rate from “lumpy space contractor” to a trusted space-data utility by converting $200M+ RPO into higher-SLA RF intelligence and weather decision products, while keeping constellation capex disciplined and proving break-even by late 2026.

Owns scarce real-world sensing (RF + atmosphere) and can compound value via APIs/SLAs as security, verification, and forecast accuracy become premium.

The upside is driven by (1) contracted backlog/RPO converting into recognized revenue as milestone timing normalizes, (2) defense RF intelligence and GNSS-interference workflows shifting from “data feed” to “trust + verification” subscriptions, and (3) weather decision products (power generation forecasts, risk users) benefiting from AI-driven demand for better probabilistic forecasting. The multiple stays moderate (not software-premium) because the business remains capex- and operations-heavy and government revenue can be lumpy, but governance normalization and clearer unit economics can still support a meaningful re-rate by 2030.

The core risks are (1) “ceiling-contract” confusion versus real funded task orders, (2) governance/reporting and the SEC investigation impacting cost of capital, and (3) the operational reality that a space-data utility needs high reliability and utilization to earn a better multiple. If revenue remains lumpy while capex stays required, dilution risk returns and the equity can remain range-bound.

$11.63