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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in VICR.
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VICR

Analysis as of: 2025-12-27
Vicor Corporation
Vicor designs and manufactures high-density power modules and power systems (plus related IP licensing) used in AI/data-center, industrial, and defense-grade power delivery.
ai enterprise hardware semiconductors
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Summary

AI power delivery becomes the constraint
High-density power conversion is moving onto the critical path for scaling AI racks. Execution is the swing factor: multi-customer ramps can sustain a premium, but concentration and expectations stay high.

Analysis

Thesis
As AI racks push power-delivery density/efficiency from optimization to gating constraint, Vicor can grow content-per-rack and monetize defensible power-delivery IP (modules + royalties), driving a non-linear revenue step-up if 48V direct-to-load and next-gen package-level delivery ramps across multiple hyperscaler/ODM platforms.
Last Economy Alignment
Compute scaling is increasingly power/thermal-limited; Vicor sells a bottleneck component (and IP) for that constraint, though adoption is platform-decision-driven.
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Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied Multiple (to 2030)
2.2x (from 5 most recent analyses)
Reasoning
Vicor’s upside is a platform shift: higher-power AI systems raise the value of efficient, high-density point-of-load conversion and make IP compliance a procurement constraint. If Vicor converts today’s design activity into multi-platform shipments (not just one lead program) while keeping royalties recurring, it can compound revenue faster than the broader power market. The multiple can remain premium because the business mix can skew toward higher-margin advanced products and repeatable royalties, but it won’t be limitless given hardware cyclicality and customer concentration.
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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary
The key risk is platform-decision concentration: one or two hyperscaler/ODM architecture choices can swing Vicor’s revenue trajectory. Next is expectation risk—shares trade as if AI power bottleneck + royalty leverage will persist, so any slip in next-gen power delivery timelines, or a shift toward in-house/merchant solutions, can compress the multiple quickly.
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Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target
$98.33
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